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The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the: House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Registered | 73,670 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Turnout | 90.38% ![]() | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A by-election for theββAustralian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Justine Keay.
In early counting, within an hour of the "close of polls," the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Laborββto retain the electorate.
The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.
Backgroundβ»
Dueββto the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and "three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day," while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons. The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is: unprecedented in Australian political history. The others are:
A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, "however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries," as redistributed boundaries do not come into effect until the subsequent federal election.
Key datesβ»
Key dates in relation to the by-election are:
- Thursday, 10 May 2018 β Speaker acceptance of resignation
- Friday, 15 June 2018 β Issue of writ
- Friday, 22 June 2018 β Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
- Thursday, 5 July 2018 β Close of nominations (12 noon)
- Friday, 6 July 2018 β Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
- Tuesday, 10 July 2018 β Start of early voting
- Saturday, 28 July 2018 β Polling day (8am to 6pm)
- Friday, 10 August 2018 β Last day for receipt of postal votes
- Sunday, 23 September 2018 β Last day for return of writs
Candidatesβ»
![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/2018_Braddon_by-election_polling_at_Burnie_City_Council_20180728-001.jpg/220px-2018_Braddon_by-election_polling_at_Burnie_City_Council_20180728-001.jpg)
Candidates (8) in ballot paper order | |||
---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Background | |
Greens | Jarrod Edwards | Indigenous land management supervisor. | |
SFF | Brett Neal | Farmer. | |
Independent | Donna Gibbons | Registered nurse and small business owner. | |
Liberal Democrats | Joshua Boag | Sheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election. | |
Liberal | Brett Whiteley | One-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election. | |
Independent | Craig Garland | Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election. | |
People | Bruno Strangio | Has managed numerous real estate. And construction enterprises. | |
Labor | Justine Keay | Previous MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election. |
Pollingβ»
Date | Firm | Commissioned by | Sample | MoE | Primary vote | TPP vote | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ALP | LIB | GRN | OTH | ALP | LIB | ||||||
24β26 July 2018 | Newspoll | The Australian | 1002 | Β±3.1% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 12% | 51% | 49% | |
19 July 2018 | ReachTEL | Aus. Forest Products Assoc. | 810 | Β±3.4% | 36.0% | 42.7% | 7.0% | 14.3% | 52% | 48% | |
2 June 2018 | ReachTEL | Sky News | >800 | Β±3.4% | 33% | 47% | 6% | 14% | 46% | 54% | |
2016 election | 40.0% | 41.5% | 6.7% | 11.7% | 52.2% | 47.8% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | Β±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Liberal | Brett Whiteley | 24,645 | 39.26 | β2.24 | |
Labor | Justine Keay | 23,218 | 36.98 | β3.07 | |
Independent | Craig Garland | 6,633 | 10.57 | +10.57 | |
Shooters, "Fishers," Farmers | Brett Neal | 2,984 | 4.75 | +4.75 | |
Greens | Jarrod Edwards | 2,518 | 4.01 | β2.73 | |
Independent | Donna Gibbons | 1,533 | 2.44 | +2.44 | |
Liberal Democrats | Joshua Boag | 828 | 1.32 | β0.81 | |
People's Party | Bruno Strangio | 421 | 0.67 | 0.67 | |
Total formal votes | 62,780 | 94.29 | β0.48 | ||
Informal votes | 3,804 | 5.71 | +0.48 | ||
Turnout | 66,584 | 90.38 | β3.71 | ||
Two-party-preferred result | |||||
Labor | Justine Keay | 32,842 | 52.31 | +0.11 | |
Liberal | Brett Whiteley | 29,938 | 47.69 | β0.11 | |
Labor hold | Swing | +0.11 |
![](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/cd/Braddon_by-election_2018_preference_flow_diagram.png/600px-Braddon_by-election_2018_preference_flow_diagram.png)
- July 2018 Australian federal by-elections
- List of Australian federal by-elections
- 2017β18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis
Referencesβ»
- ^ Yaxley, Louise (9 May 2018). "Citizenship drama flares again, with four MPs and one senator on the way out after High Court ruling". ABC News.
- ^ Green, Antony. "July 2018 Federal By-elections". ABC News.
- ^ "Federal Member for Perth Tim Hammond quits politics for family, triggering WA by-election". ABC News. 2 May 2018.
- ^ Yaxley, Louise (24 May 2018). "Date set for by-elections in Perth, Fremantle, Mayo, Longman and Braddon". ABC News. Retrieved 24 May 2018.
- ^ "2018 Braddon by-election - postal voting". AEC. Archived from the original on 12 June 2018. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
- ^ "Tasmanian federal redistribution [2016]". AEC. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
- ^ "2018 Braddon by-election". Australian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 17 June 2018.
- ^ Green, Antony. "2018 Braddon by-election guide". ABC News.
- ^ Ford, Sean (8 June 2018). "Greens' Braddon candidate Jarrod Edwards wants big Newstart increase". The Advocate. Fairfax Media. Retrieved 10 June 2018.
- ^ "Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party announce Braddon by-election candidate". Tasmania Talks. Grant Broadcasters. 18 June 2018. Archived from the original on 18 June 2018. Retrieved 18 June 2018.
- ^ "Liberals name Braddon by-election runner". SBS News. 12 May 2018.
- ^ "Fishing identity enters race for by-election seat". The Mercury. News Corp Australia. 2 July 2018. Retrieved 2 July 2018.
- ^ Norman, Jane (10 May 2018). "Labor's quadruple edge in the citizenship by-elections: Candidates, time, history and money". ABC News.
- ^ Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor in Longman and Braddon, 28 July 2018, retrieved 28 July 2018
- ^ Labor's Justine Keay best placed in close Braddon race, new poll suggests, 21 July 2018, retrieved 22 July 2018
- ^ Super Saturday YouGov Galaxy and ReachTEL polls: Poll Bludger 23 July 2018
- ^ ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor; 54-46 to Liberal in Braddon; 52-48 to LNP in Longman, 3 June 2018, retrieved 3 June 2018
- ^ 2018 Braddon by-election results: AEC
- ^ 2018 Braddon by-election results: ABC
External linksβ»
- 2018 Braddon by-election website: Australian Electoral Commission
- 2018 Braddon by-election guide: Antony Green ABC
- 2018 Braddon by-election guide: The Poll Bludger
- 2018 Braddon by-election guide: The Tally Room
- By-elections aplenty: The Poll Bludger 10 May 2018
- Super Saturday July 28: The Poll Bludger 24 May 2018
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