2016 Australian federal election |
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National results |
State and territory results |
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Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and priorββto the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relationββto voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives (lower house) and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.
Every federal election after 1961 has been won by, the grouping that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales. Unusually, in the upcoming election nearly half of all marginal government seats are in NSW; of these, nearly half are in Western Sydney and half are in rural and "regional areas." No more than a few government seats in each other state are marginal.
Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require at least 50.5 percent of the two-party vote (a 4.0-point two-party swing/greater), while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require 50.2 percent of the two-party vote (a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater).
Graphical aggregate of national voting intention pollingβ»
The table below published by The Poll Bludger sets out the final release of federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state/territory (and swings since the previous election).
State (seats) | L/NP 2PP | ALP 2PP | L/NP swing |
---|---|---|---|
New South Wales (47) | 51.3 | 48.7 | β3.1 |
Victoria (37) | 47.6 | 52.4 | β2.2 |
Queensland (30) | 52.7 | 47.3 | β4.3 |
Western Australia (16) | 54.2 | 45.8 | β4.1 |
South Australia (11) | 53.8 | 46.2 | +1.4 |
Tasmania (5) | 47.3 | 52.7 | β1.4 |
ACT & NT (4) | 40.4 | 59.6 | β2.7 |
Australia (150) | 50.9 | 49.1 | β2.6 |
Source: BludgerTrack 1 Jul 2016: Poll Bludger β Methodology β State 2PP history
Voting intentionβ»
Date | Firm | Primary vote | 2PP vote | Sample size | Margin of error | Method | |||||
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L/NP | ALP | GRN | OTH | L/NP | ALP | ||||||
28 Jun β 1 Jul 2016 | Newspoll | 42% | 35% | 10% | 13% | 50.5% | 49.5% | 4,135 | ? | Landline | |
30 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 42.8% | 34.6% | 10.7% | 12% | 51% | 49% | 2,084 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
27β30 Jun 2016 | Essential | 42.5% | 34.5% | 11.5% | 12% | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1,212 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
28β29 Jun 2016 | Galaxy | 43% | 36% | 10% | 11% | 51% | 49% | 1,768 | ? | Landline | |
26β29 Jun 2016 | Ipsos | 40% | 33% | 13% | 14% | 50% | 50% | 1,377 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
23β26 Jun 2016 | Essential | 39% | 37% | 10% | 14% | 49% | 51% | 1,773 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
23β26 Jun 2016 | Newspoll | 43% | 36% | 9% | 12% | 51% | 49% | 1,713 | Β±3 | Landline | |
23 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 42.3% | 33.7% | 10.5% | 13.3% | 51% | 49% | 2,349 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
20β22 Jun 2016 | Galaxy | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12% | 50% | 50% | ? | ? | Landline | |
16β19 Jun 2016 | Essential | 40% | 37% | 10% | 13% | 49% | 51% | 1,013 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
16β19 Jun 2016 | Newspoll | 41% | 36% | 10% | 13% | 50% | 50% | 1,805 | Β±3 | Landline | |
16 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 43.5% | 33.6% | 9.1% | 13.7% | 51% | 49% | 2,576 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
14β16 Jun 2016 | Ipsos | 39% | 33% | 14% | 14% | 49% | 51% | 1,437 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
9β12 Jun 2016 | Essential | 41% | 37% | 10% | 12% | 49% | 51% | 1,784 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
9 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 42.7% | 33.2% | 9.9% | 14.3% | 50% | 50% | 2,175 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
2β5 Jun 2016 | Essential | 41% | 36% | 10% | 13% | 50% | 50% | 1,772 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
2β5 Jun 2016 | Newspoll | 40% | 35% | 10% | 15% | 50% | 50% | 1,867 | Β±3 | Landline | |
2 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 41.5% | 34.9% | 10.1% | 13.5% | 50% | 50% | 2,414 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
31 May β 2 Jun 2016 | Ipsos | 42% | 36% | 13% | 9% | 49% | 51% | 1,359 | Β±2.7 | Telephone (random) | |
26β29 May 2016 | Essential | 41% | 35% | 9% | 15% | 51% | 49% | 1,767 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
21β22, 28β29 May 2016 | Morgan | 37.5% | 32.5% | 13% | 17% | 49% | 51% | 3,099 | Β±1 | In person and SMS | |
26 May 2016 | ReachTEL | 41.1% | 36.5% | 9.6% | 12.8% | 48% | 52% | 2,700 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
19β22 May 2016 | Essential | 41% | 37% | 9% | 13% | 49% | 51% | 1,794 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
19β22 May 2016 | Newspoll | 41% | 36% | 11% | 12% | 49% | 51% | ? | Β±3 | Landline | |
19 May 2016 | ReachTEL | 42.6% | 36.6% | 9.9% | 10.9% | 50% | 50% | 2,407 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
17β19 May 2016 | Ipsos | 43% | 34% | 14% | 9% | 51% | 49% | 1,497 | Β±2.5 | Telephone (random) | |
14β15 May 2016 | Morgan | 36.5% | 33% | 15.5% | 15% | 47.5% | 52.5% | 2,318 | Β±1 | In person and SMS | |
12β15 May 2016 | Essential | 42% | 38% | 9% | 11% | 49% | 51% | 1,784 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
6β8 May 2016 | Lonergan | 42% | 35% | 12% | 10% | 50% | 50% | 1,841 | ? | Landline and mobile | |
5β8 May 2016 | Essential | 42% | 38% | 10% | 10% | 49% | 51% | 1,754 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
9 May 2016 | 2016 Federal Election campaign begins | ||||||||||
5β8 May 2016 | Newspoll | 41% | 37% | 11% | 11% | 49% | 51% | ? | Β±3 | Landline | |
5β7 May 2016 | Ipsos | 44% | 33% | 14% | 9% | 51% | 49% | 1,410 | Β±2.6 | Telephone (random) | |
4β6 May 2016 | Galaxy | 42% | 36% | 11% | 11% | 50% | 50% | 1,739 | Β±2.5 | ? | |
5 May 2016 | ReachTEL | 43.2% | 35.1% | 9.5% | 12.2% | 50% | 50% | 2,450 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
27 Apr β 1 May 2016 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 10% | 12% | 48% | 52% | 1,753 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
23β24, 30 Apr β 1 May 2016 | Morgan | 40% | 32.5% | 13.5% | 14% | 49% | 51% | 2,951 | Β±1 | In person and SMS | |
20β24 Apr 2016 | Essential | 40% | 39% | 10% | 11% | 48% | 52% | 1,740 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
14β17 Apr 2016 | Newspoll | 41% | 36% | 11% | 12% | 49% | 51% | ? | Β±3 | Landline | |
13β17 Apr 2016 | Essential | 42% | 36% | 11% | 11% | 50% | 50% | 1,753 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
9β10, 16β17 Apr 2016 | Morgan | 40.5% | 32% | 14% | 13.5% | 50% | 50% | 3,083 | Β±1 | In person and SMS | |
14β16 Apr 2016 | Ipsos | 42% | 33% | 14% | 11% | 50% | 50% | 1,402 | Β±2.6 | Telephone (random) | |
14 Apr 2016 | ReachTEL | 43.5% | 35.8% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 50% | 50% | 2,415 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
6β10 Apr 2016 | Essential | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12% | 50% | 50% | 1,792 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
31 Mar β 3 Apr 2016 | Newspoll | 41% | 36% | 11% | 12% | 49% | 51% | ? | Β±3 | Landline | |
26β27 Mar, 2β3 Apr 2016 | Morgan | 42% | 31% | 13% | 14% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 3,174 | Β±1 | In person and SMS | |
21 Mar 2016 | ReachTEL | 46.6% | 34.4% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 52% | 48% | 3,274 | ? | Telephone (random) | |
17β20 Mar 2016 | Newspoll | 43% | 34% | 12% | 11% | 51% | 49% | ? | Β±3% | Landline | |
16β20 Mar 2016 | Essential | 43% | 38% | 10% | 9% | 50% | 50% | 1,790 | Β±3 | Online (members) | |
12β13, 19β20 Mar 2016 | Morgan | 40% | 33% | 14% | 13% | 49.5% | 50.5% | 2,948 | Β±1 | In person and SMS | |
10β12 Mar 2016 | Ipsos | 45% | 31% | 14% | 10% | 53% | 47% | ||||
3β6 Mar 2016 | Newspoll | 43% | 35% | 12% | 10% | 50% | 50% | ||||
2β6 Mar 2016 | Essential | 43% | 37% | 10% | 10% | 50% | 50% | ||||
27β28 Feb, 5β6 Mar 2016 | Morgan | 43% | 29.5% | 13% | 14.5% | 53% | 47% | ||||
24β28 Feb 2016 | Essential | 43% | 38% | 10% | 9% | 50% | 50% | ||||
18β21 Feb 2016 | Newspoll | 43% | 35% | 12% | 10% | 50% | 50% | ||||
17β21 Feb 2016 | Essential | 44% | 35% | 10% | 11% | 52% | 48% | ||||
13β14, 20β21 Feb 2016 | Morgan | 43.5% | 29.5% | 15% | 12% | 52.5% | 47.5% | ||||
11β13 Feb 2016 | Ipsos | 44% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 52% | 48% | ||||
11 Feb 2016 | ReachTEL | 48.1% | 32.8% | 10.1% | 9% | 54% | 46% | ||||
3β7 Feb 2016 | Essential | 44% | 35% | 10% | 10% | 52% | 48% | ||||
30β31 Jan, 6β7 Feb 2016 | Morgan | 43.5% | 29% | 16% | 11.5% | 52.5% | 47.5% | ||||
28β31 Jan 2016 | Newspoll | 46% | 34% | 11% | 9% | 53% | 47% | ||||
16β17, 23β24 Jan 2016 | Morgan | 43.5% | 28% | 15% | 13.5% | 55% | 45% | ||||
21 Jan 2016 | ReachTEL | 48.5% | 31.8% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 55% | 45% | ||||
15β18 Jan 2016 | Essential | 44% | 35% | 10% | 12% | 51% | 49% | ||||
2β3, 9β10 Jan 2016 | Morgan | 47% | 29% | 13% | 11% | 56% | 44% | ||||
15 Dec 2015 | Essential | 45% | 35% | 10% | 10% | 52% | 48% | ||||
5β6, 12β13 Dec 2015 | Morgan | 48% | 27% | 14.5% | 10.5% | 57.5% | 42.5% | ||||
8 Dec 2015 | Essential | 44% | 36% | 11% | 10% | 51% | 49% | ||||
4β6 Dec 2015 | Newspoll | 45% | 33% | 12% | 10% | 53% | 47% | ||||
1 Dec 2015 | Essential | 44% | 35% | 11% | 10% | 51% | 49% | ||||
21β22, 28β29 Nov 2015 | Morgan | 46.5% | 28.5% | 14% | 11% | 56% | 44% | ||||
26 Nov 2015 | ReachTEL | 48.8% | 31.1% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 55% | 45% | ||||
24 Nov 2015 | Essential | 45% | 35% | 10% | 10% | 52% | 48% | ||||
19β22 Nov 2015 | Newspoll | 46% | 33% | 11% | 10% | 53% | 47% | ||||
7β8, 14β15 Nov 2015 | Morgan | 46% | 28% | 14.5% | 11.5% | 56% | 44% | ||||
12β14 Nov 2015 | Ipsos | 48% | 29% | 13% | 10% | 57% | 43% | ||||
10 Nov 2015 | Essential | 45% | 35% | 10% | 11% | 52% | 48% | ||||
6β8 Nov 2015 | Newspoll | 46% | 34% | 10% | 10% | 53% | 47% | ||||
3 Nov 2015 | Essential | 45% | 34% | 11% | 10% | 53% | 47% | ||||
24β25 Oct, 1 Nov 2015 | Morgan | 47% | 28.5% | 14.5% | 10% | 56.5% | 43.5% | ||||
27 Oct 2015 | Essential | 45% | 35% | 11% | 9% | 52% | 48% | ||||
23β25 Oct 2015 | Newspoll | 45% | 35% | 11% | 9% | 52% | 48% | ||||
22 Oct 2015 | ReachTEL | 46.7% | 33.0% | 11.3% | 9.1% | 53% | 47% | ||||
20 Oct 2015 | Essential | 44% | 36% | 11% | 9% | 51% | 49% | ||||
10β11, 17β18 Oct 2015 | Morgan | 46.5% | 27.5% | 15.5% | 10.5% | 56% | 44% | ||||
15β17 Oct 2015 | Ipsos | 45% | 30% | 14% | 10% | 54% | 46% | ||||
13 Oct 2015 | Essential | 44% | 36% | 10% | 10% | 51% | 49% | ||||
9β11 Oct 2015 | Newspoll | 43% | 35% | 12% | 10% | 50% | 50% | ||||
26β27 Sep, 1β5 Oct 2015 | Morgan | 47% | 27.5% | 14% | 11.5% | 56% | 44% | ||||
1β4 Oct 2015 | Essential | 44% | 35% | 10% | 10% | 52% | 48% | ||||
24β28 Sep 2015 | Essential | 44% | 35% | 11% | 11% | 52% | 48% | ||||
17β21 Sep 2015 | Essential | 43% | 37% | 11% | 9% | 50% | 50% | ||||
19β20 Sep 2015 | Morgan | 46% | 29.5% | 13% | 11.5% | 55% | 45% | ||||
17β20 Sep 2015 | Newspoll | 44% | 35% | 11% | 10% | 51% | 49% | ||||
15β16 Sep 2015 | Galaxy | 44% | 36% | 11% | 9% | 51% | 49% | ||||
15 Sep 2015 | ReachTEL | 43.3% | 35.9% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 50% | 50% | ||||
14 Sep 2015 | Turnbull replaces Abbott as Liberal leader | ||||||||||
12β13 Sep 2015 | Morgan | 35% | 36.5% | 16% | 12.5% | 43% | 57% | ||||
5β6 Sep 2015 | Morgan | 36.5% | 35.5% | 16.5% | 11.5% | 45% | 55% | ||||
4β6 Sep 2015 | Newspoll | 39% | 39% | 12% | 10% | 46% | 54% | ||||
26β30 Aug 2015 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 11% | 12% | 48% | 52% | ||||
27 Aug 2015 | ReachTEL | 40.3% | 37.5% | 13.4% | 8.9% | 47% | 53% | ||||
22β23 Aug 2015 | Morgan | 38.5% | 36% | 14% | 11.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | ||||
20β23 Aug 2015 | Newspoll | 38% | 39% | 13% | 10% | 46% | 54% | ||||
13β15 Aug 2015 | Ipsos | 38% | 36% | 16% | 11% | 44% | 56% | ||||
11β14 Aug 2015 | Essential | 41% | 38% | 10% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
8β9 Aug 2015 | Morgan | 36.5% | 37% | 15.5% | 11% | 43% | 57% | ||||
8β9 Aug 2015 | Newspoll | 39% | 39% | 13% | 9% | 46% | 54% | ||||
4β7 Aug 2015 | Essential | 40% | 39% | 11% | 9% | 47% | 53% | ||||
6 Aug 2015 | ReachTel | 40.2% | 38.3% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 47% | 53% | ||||
28β31 Jul 2015 | Essential | 39% | 38% | 12% | 10% | 47% | 53% | ||||
30 Jul 2015 | ReachTel | 40.6% | 38% | 12.9% | 8.6% | 47% | 53% | ||||
25β26 Jul 2015 | Morgan | 39% | 35.5% | 15% | 10.5% | 46% | 54% | ||||
16β19 Jul 2015 | Newspoll | 40% | 39% | 12% | 9% | 47% | 53% | ||||
14β17 Jul 2015 | Essential | 41% | 38% | 11% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
11β12 Jul 2015 | Morgan | 41.5% | 34.5% | 13.5% | 10.5% | 49% | 51% | ||||
4β5 Jul 2015 | Newspoll | 40% | 37% | 13% | 10% | 48% | 52% | ||||
2β4 Jul 2015 | Ipsos | 39% | 35% | 16% | 10% | 47% | 53% | ||||
27β28 Jun 2015 | Morgan | 39% | 36% | 14% | 11% | 46.5% | 53.5% | ||||
16 Jun 2015 | Newspoll | 40% | 34% | 14% | 12% | 49% | 51% | ||||
16 Jun 2015 | Essential | 42% | 39% | 10% | 9% | 48% | 52% | ||||
13β14 Jun 2015 | Morgan | 37.5% | 37.5% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | ||||
11β13 Jun 2015 | Ipsos | 40% | 37% | 14% | 10% | 47% | 53% | ||||
11β13 Jun 2015 | Essential | 41% | 40% | 9% | 10% | 48% | 52% | ||||
2 Jun 2015 | Newspoll | 41% | 37% | 13% | 9% | 48% | 52% | ||||
2 Jun 2015 | Essential | 41% | 37% | 13% | 9% | 48% | 52% | ||||
23β24, 30β31 May 2015 | Morgan | 41% | 37% | 13% | 9% | 47% | 53% | ||||
26 May 2015 | Essential | 41% | 39% | 10% | 9% | 48% | 52% | ||||
18 May 2015 | Morgan | 41.5% | 35.5% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 49% | 51% | ||||
17 May 2015 | Ipsos | 43% | 35% | 13% | 9% | 50% | 50% | ||||
17 May 2015 | Newspoll | 40% | 37% | 12% | 11% | 47% | 53% | ||||
13 May 2015 | ReachTel | 41.1% | 38.3% | 12.1% | 8.6% | 47% | 53% | ||||
7β10 May 2015 | Essential | 41% | 39% | 11% | 10% | 48% | 52% | ||||
6 May 2015 | Di Natale replaces Milne as Greens leader | ||||||||||
4 May 2015 | Newspoll | 39% | 35% | 12% | 14% | 48% | 52% | ||||
4 May 2015 | Morgan | 40% | 37.5% | 11.5% | 11% | 46.5% | 53.5% | ||||
28 Apr 2015 | Essential | 40% | 39% | 10% | 11% | 47% | 53% | ||||
21 Apr 2015 | Essential | 41% | 39% | 11% | 10% | 48% | 52% | ||||
11β12, 18β19 Apr 2015 | Morgan | 38.5% | 38% | 12% | 11% | 47% | 53% | ||||
14 Apr 2015 | Essential | 41% | 39% | 10% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
10β12 Apr 2015 | Newspoll | 41% | 36% | 11% | 12% | 49% | 51% | ||||
9β11 Apr 2015 | Ipsos | 39% | 38% | 13% | 9% | 46% | 54% | ||||
28β29 Mar, 3β6 Apr 2015 | Morgan | 40.5% | 36% | 12.5% | 11% | 47% | 53% | ||||
29 Mar 2015 | ReachTEL | 39.6% | 40.5% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 46% | 54% | ||||
20β22 Mar 2015 | Newspoll | 41% | 37% | 11% | 11% | 49% | 51% | ||||
14β15, 21β22 Mar 2015 | Morgan | 38% | 40% | 11% | 11% | 44% | 56% | ||||
17 Mar 2015 | Essential | 40% | 39% | 9% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
10 Mar 2015 | Essential | 40% | 40% | 9% | 11% | 47% | 53% | ||||
7β8 Mar 2015 | Newspoll | 38% | 39% | 12% | 11% | 45% | 55% | ||||
28 Febβ1, 7β8 Mar 2015 | Morgan | 39% | 38% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 46.5% | 53.5% | ||||
26β28 Feb 2015 | Ipsos | 42% | 36% | 12% | 10% | 49% | 51% | ||||
20β22 Feb 2015 | Essential | 40% | 41% | 9% | 10% | 47% | 53% | ||||
20β22 Feb 2015 | Newspoll | 38% | 38% | 12% | 12% | 47% | 53% | ||||
6β8 Feb 2015 | Newspoll | 35% | 41% | 12% | 12% | 43% | 57% | ||||
31 Janβ1, 7β8 Feb 2015 | Morgan | 35% | 41% | 12% | 12% | 42.5% | 57.5% | ||||
5 Feb 2015 | ReachTEL | 38.4% | 41.4% | 11.2% | 8.9% | 45% | 55% | ||||
4β5 Feb 2015 | Galaxy | 36% | 43% | 11% | 10% | 43% | 57% | ||||
28β30 Jan 2015 | Galaxy | 36% | 43% | 11% | 10% | 43% | 57% | ||||
27 Jan 2015 | ReachTEL | 39.7% | 40.2% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 46% | 54% | ||||
27 Jan 2015 | Essential | 39% | 41% | 9% | 11% | 46% | 54% | ||||
20 Jan 2015 | Essential | 40% | 40% | 10% | 11% | 47% | 53% | ||||
13 Jan 2015 | Essential | 38% | 40% | 10% | 11% | 46% | 54% | ||||
12 Jan 2015 | Morgan | 38.5% | 38.5% | 9.5% | 13.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | ||||
23β27 Dec 2014 | Morgan | 37.5% | 39.5% | 12% | 11% | 43.5% | 56.5% | ||||
16 Dec 2014 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 10% | 12% | 48% | 52% | ||||
12β15 Dec 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 39% | 12% | 11% | 46% | 54% | ||||
6β7, 13β14 Dec 2014 | Morgan | 35% | 41% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 42.5% | 57.5% | ||||
4β6 Dec 2014 | Ipsos | 40% | 37% | 12% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
2β4 Dec 2014 | Galaxy | 38% | 41% | 11% | 10% | 45% | 55% | ||||
2 Dec 2014 | Essential | 40% | 40% | 9% | 11% | 47% | 53% | ||||
29β30 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 37% | 37% | 13% | 13% | 46% | 54% | ||||
22β23, 29β30 Nov 2014 | Morgan | 37% | 37.5% | 12% | 11.5% | 46.5% | 53.5% | ||||
25 Nov 2014 | Essential | 40% | 39% | 10% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
21 Nov 2014 | ReachTEL | 40.2% | 38.7% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 47% | 53% | ||||
18 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 36% | 39% | 11% | 14% | 45% | 55% | ||||
17 Nov 2014 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 10% | 12% | 48% | 52% | ||||
17 Nov 2014 | Morgan | 38% | 38.5% | 12% | 11.5% | 44.5% | 55.5% | ||||
11 Nov 2014 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 10% | 13% | 48% | 52% | ||||
4 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 36% | 13% | 13% | 46% | 54% | ||||
4 Nov 2014 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 10% | 12% | 48% | 52% | ||||
25β26 Oct, 1β2 Nov 2014 | Morgan | 38.5% | 37.5% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | ||||
30 Octβ1 Nov 2014 | Ipsos | 42% | 37% | 12% | 10% | 49% | 51% | ||||
28 Oct 2014 | Essential | 39% | 39% | 9% | 12% | 47% | 53% | ||||
23 Oct 2014 | ReachTEL | 40.1% | 37.5% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 48% | 52% | ||||
21 Oct 2014 | Essential | 40% | 39% | 10% | 11% | 47% | 53% | ||||
21 Oct 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 34% | 14% | 14% | 47% | 53% | ||||
20 Oct 2014 | Morgan | 39.5% | 35.5% | 12% | 13% | 48% | 52% | ||||
14 Oct 2014 | Essential | 41% | 39% | 10% | 10% | 48% | 52% | ||||
7 Oct 2014 | Essential | 40% | 39% | 10% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
4β5 Oct 2014 | Morgan | 40% | 35% | 12% | 13% | 47% | 53% | ||||
4β5 Oct 2014 | Galaxy | 42% | 36% | 12% | 10% | 49% | 51% | ||||
23 Sep 2014 | Newspoll | 41% | 34% | 11% | 14% | 49% | 51% | ||||
13β14, 20β21 Sep 2014 | Morgan | 38.5% | 37.5% | 12% | 12% | 45.5% | 54.5% | ||||
18 Sep 2014 | ReachTEL | 41.6% | 37.4% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 49% | 51% | ||||
30β31 Aug, 6β7 Sep 2014 | Morgan | 38% | 37% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 46% | 54% | ||||
5β7 Sep 2014 | Newspoll | 39% | 35% | 14% | 12% | 48% | 52% | ||||
22β24 Aug 2014 | Newspoll | 40% | 34% | 11% | 15% | 49% | 51% | ||||
16β17, 23β24 Aug 2014 | Morgan | 37.5% | 38.5% | 10.5% | 13.5% | 44.5% | 55.5% | ||||
19 Aug 2014 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 9% | 13% | 48% | 52% | ||||
9β10 Aug 2014 | Morgan | 37.5% | 38% | 11% | 13.5% | 44% | 56% | ||||
8β10 Aug 2014 | Newspoll | 40% | 34% | 13% | 13% | 48% | 52% | ||||
25β27 Jul 2014 | Newspoll | 36% | 36% | 12% | 16% | 46% | 54% | ||||
11β13 Jul 2014 | Newspoll | 36% | 37% | 11% | 16% | 46% | 54% | ||||
1 Jul 2014 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 9% | 13% | 48% | 52% | ||||
30 Jun 2014 | Morgan | 35% | 36.5% | 12% | 16.5% | 42.5% | 57.5% | ||||
27β29 Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 35% | 37% | 13% | 15% | 45% | 55% | ||||
13β15 Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 37% | 36% | 10% | 17% | 47% | 53% | ||||
30 Mayβ1 Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 36% | 37% | 12% | 15% | 46% | 54% | ||||
27 May 2014 | Essential | 40% | 39% | 9% | 12% | 48% | 52% | ||||
20 May 2014 | Essential | 40% | 40% | 8% | 12% | 48% | 52% | ||||
17β18 May 2014 | Morgan | 35% | 38.5% | 12% | 14.5% | 42.5% | 57.5% | ||||
16β18 May 2014 | Newspoll | 36% | 38% | 11% | 15% | 45% | 55% | ||||
15β17 May 2014 | Nielsen | 35% | 40% | 14% | 12% | 44% | 56% | ||||
4 May 2014 | Galaxy | 39% | 37% | 11% | 13% | 48% | 52% | ||||
2β4 May 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 34% | 14% | 14% | 47% | 53% | ||||
30 Apr 2014 | Essential | 40% | 38% | 10% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
22 Apr 2014 | Morgan | 38.5% | 34% | 13% | 14.5% | 48% | 52% | ||||
15 Apr 2014 | Essential | 42% | 37% | 10% | 11% | 50% | 50% | ||||
13 Apr 2014 | Nielsen | 40% | 34% | 17% | 9% | 48% | 52% | ||||
8 Apr 2014 | Essential | 42% | 38% | 9% | 11% | 49% | 51% | ||||
7 Apr 2014 | Morgan | 38.5% | 34.5% | 12% | 15% | 48.5% | 51.5% | ||||
4β6 Apr 2014 | Newspoll | 43% | 34% | 11% | 12% | 51% | 49% | ||||
25 Mar 2014 | Morgan | 38% | 38.5% | 11% | 12.5% | 45.5% | 54.5% | ||||
25 Mar 2014 | Essential | 44% | 37% | 9% | 11% | 51% | 49% | ||||
21β23 Mar 2014 | Newspoll | 40% | 36% | 13% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
18 Mar 2014 | Essential | 43% | 36% | 9% | 12% | 51% | 49% | ||||
13β15 Mar 2014 | Nielsen | 44% | 35% | 12% | 10% | 51% | 49% | ||||
7β9 Mar 2014 | Newspoll | 41% | 35% | 11% | 13% | 49% | 51% | ||||
5 Mar 2014 | Essential | 44% | 38% | 8% | 10% | 51% | 49% | ||||
23 Feb 2014 | Morgan | 41% | 35.5% | 10.5% | 13% | 49.5% | 50.5% | ||||
21β23 Feb 2014 | Newspoll | 39% | 39% | 10% | 12% | 46% | 54% | ||||
15 Feb 2014 | Nielsen | 44% | 33% | 12% | 11% | 52% | 48% | ||||
7β9 Feb 2014 | Newspoll | 41% | 35% | 12% | 12% | 49% | 51% | ||||
28 Jan 2014 | Morgan | 39.5% | 37% | 11.5% | 12% | 47% | 53% | ||||
23 Jan 2014 | ReachTEL | 39.8% | 40.6% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 47% | 53% | ||||
17β20 Jan 2014 | Essential | 43% | 37% | 9% | 11% | 51% | 49% | ||||
13 Jan 2014 | Morgan | 38% | 39% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 47.5% | 52.5% | ||||
16 Dec 2013 | Morgan | 40.5% | 38.5% | 10% | 11% | 47.5% | 52.5% | ||||
15 Dec 2013 | ReachTEL | 41.4% | 40.4% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 48% | 52% | ||||
6β8 Dec 2013 | Newspoll | 40% | 38% | 11% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
28 Novβ2 Dec 2013 | Essential | 44% | 36% | 8% | 11% | 52% | 48% | ||||
30 Novβ1 Dec 2013 | Morgan (multi) | 41.5% | 38.5% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 48.5% | 51.5% | ||||
22β24 Nov 2013 | Newspoll | 43% | 35% | 10% | 12% | 52% | 48% | ||||
21β23 Nov 2013 | Nielsen | 41% | 37% | 11% | 11% | 48% | 52% | ||||
8β10 Nov 2013 | Newspoll | 45% | 32% | 12% | 11% | 53% | 47% | ||||
25β27 Oct 2013 | Newspoll | 47% | 31% | 10% | 12% | 56% | 44% | ||||
19β20 Oct 2013 | Morgan | 43.5% | 34.5% | 10% | 12% | 51.5% | 48.5% | ||||
13 Oct 2013 | Shorten replaces Rudd as Labor leader | ||||||||||
21β22 Sep 2013 | Morgan | 43.5% | 34% | 10.5% | 12% | 50.5% | 49.5% | ||||
19β22 Sep 2013 | Essential | 43% | 37% | 9% | 11% | 51% | 49% | ||||
12β15 Sep 2013 | Essential | 44% | 36% | 9% | 11% | 53% | 47% | ||||
7 Sep 2013 | 2013 election | 45.6% | 33.4% | 8.7% | 12.3% | 53.5% | 46.5% | ||||
4β6 Sep 2013 | Morgan (multi) | 45% | 31.5% | 9.5% | 14% | 54.5% | 44.5% | ||||
5 Sep 2013 | ReachTEL | 43.5% | 33.7% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 53% | 47% | ||||
3β5 Sep 2013 | Newspoll | 46% | 33% | 9% | 12% | 54% | 46% |
Preferred prime minister and satisfactionβ»
Date | Firm | Preferred prime minister | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Turnbull | Shorten | Turnbull | Shorten | |||||
28 Jun β 1 Jul 2016 | Newspoll | 48% | 31% | 40% | 47% | 36% | 51% | |
30 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 52.9% | 47.1% | |||||
26β29 Jun 2016 | Ipsos | 49% | 35% | 49% | 41% | 42% | 50% | |
23β26 Jun 2016 | Essential | 40% | 29% | 40% | 40% | 37% | 39% | |
23β26 Jun 2016 | Newspoll | 45% | 30% | 37% | 51% | 35% | 50% | |
23 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 58.4% | 41.6% | |||||
16β19 Jun 2016 | Newspoll | 46% | 31% | 36% | 51% | 35% | 51% | |
16 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 57.6% | 42.4% | |||||
14β16 Jun 2016 | Ipsos | 48% | 34% | 47% | 42% | 43% | 47% | |
9β12 Jun 2016 | Essential | 40% | 29% | 38% | 40% | 34% | 40% | |
9 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 55.4% | 44.6% | |||||
2β5 Jun 2016 | Newspoll | 45% | 30% | 37% | 51% | 33% | 52% | |
2 Jun 2016 | ReachTEL | 55.6% | 44.4% | |||||
31 May β 2 Jun 2016 | Ipsos | 49% | 31% | 45% | 42% | 41% | 47% | |
26β29 May 2016 | Essential | 40% | 27% | 41% | 39% | 34% | 44% | |
26 May 2016 | ReachTEL | 54.9% | 45.1% | |||||
19β22 May 2016 | Newspoll | 46% | 31% | 38% | 50% | 37% | 49% | |
19 May 2016 | ReachTEL | 55.6% | 44.4% | |||||
17β19 May 2016 | Ipsos | 47% | 30% | 48% | 38% | 40% | 46% | |
12β15 May 2016 | Essential | 43% | 28% | 40% | 42% | 34% | 43% | |
5β8 May 2016 | Newspoll | 49% | 27% | 38% | 49% | 33% | 52% | |
5β7 May 2016 | Ipsos | 51% | 29% | 48% | 40% | 38% | 49% | |
5 May 2016 | ReachTEL | 57.7% | 42.3% | |||||
4β5 May 2016 | Morgan | 57% | 24% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 49% | |
14β17 Apr 2016 | Newspoll | 47% | 28% | 36% | 49% | 31% | 52% | |
14β16 Apr 2016 | Ipsos | 54% | 27% | 51% | 38% | 33% | 55% | |
14 Apr 2016 | ReachTEL | 58.4% | 41.6% | |||||
Apr 2016 | Essential | 44% | 22% | 39% | 39% | 30% | 44% | |
31 Marβ3 Apr 2016 | Newspoll | 48% | 27% | 38% | 48% | 32% | 53% | |
Mar 2016 | Essential | 48% | 19% | 45% | 35% | 27% | 47% | |
21 Mar 2016 | ReachTEL | 60.0% | 40.0% | |||||
10β12 Mar 2016 | Ipsos | 61% | 24% | 55% | 32% | 33% | 52% | |
3β6 Mar 2016 | Newspoll | 55% | 21% | 44% | 41% | 30% | 55% | |
Feb 2016 | Essential | 52% | 15% | 51% | 27% | 27% | 48% | |
18β21 Feb 2016 | Newspoll | 55% | 21% | 48% | 38% | 28% | 57% | |
11β13 Feb 2016 | Ipsos | 64% | 19% | 62% | 24% | 30% | 55% | |
11 Feb 2016 | ReachTEL | 74.9% | 25.1% | |||||
Jan 2016 | Essential | 51% | 18% | 51% | 25% | 27% | 47% | |
28β31 Jan 2016 | Newspoll | 59% | 20% | 53% | 31% | 25% | 60% | |
Dec 2015 | Essential | 54% | 15% | 56% | 23% | 27% | 47% | |
4β6 Dec 2015 | Newspoll | 60% | 14% | 52% | 30% | 23% | 61% | |
Nov 2015 | Essential | 55% | 14% | 56% | 20% | 27% | 47% | |
26 Nov 2015 | ReachTEL | 71.4% | 28.6% | |||||
19β22 Nov 2015 | Newspoll | 64% | 15% | 60% | 22% | 26% | 57% | |
12β14 Nov 2015 | Ipsos | 69% | 18% | 69% | 16% | 29% | 57% | |
6β8 Nov 2015 | Newspoll | 55% | 14% | 56% | 20% | 27% | 47% | |
Oct 2015 | Essential | 48% | 19% | 47% | 17% | 30% | 42% | |
23β25 Oct 2015 | Newspoll | 63% | 17% | 58% | 23% | 26% | 58% | |
20β22 Oct 2015 | Morgan | 76% | 14% | 66% | 18% | 25% | 62% | |
15β17 Oct 2015 | Ipsos | 67% | 21% | 68% | 17% | 32% | 56% | |
9β11 Oct 2015 | Newspoll | 57% | 19% | 50% | 25% | 28% | 53% | |
Sep 2015 | Essential | 53% | 17% | N/A | N/A | 29% | 50% | |
17β20 Sep 2015 | Newspoll | 55% | 21% | 42% | 24% | 29% | 54% | |
15β16 Sep 2015 | Galaxy | 51% | 20% | |||||
15 Sep 2015 | ReachTEL | 61.9% | 38.1% | |||||
15 Sep 2015 | Morgan | 70% | 24% | |||||
Abbott | Shorten | Abbott | Shorten | |||||
4β6 Sep 2015 | Newspoll | 37% | 41% | 30% | 63% | 30% | 58% | |
27 Aug 2015 | ReachTEL | 42.1% | 57.9% | |||||
20β23 Aug 2015 | Newspoll | 35% | 40% | 30% | 63% | 34% | 52% | |
13β15 Aug 2015 | Ipsos | 39% | 45% | 35% | 59% | 39% | 49% | |
11 Aug 2015 | Essential | 36% | 32% | 38% | 53% | 29% | 52% | |
9 Aug 2015 | Newspoll | 39% | 39% | 33% | 61% | 29% | 57% | |
6 Aug 2015 | ReachTEL | 41.5% | 58.5% | |||||
31 Jul 2015 | ReachTEL | 44.9% | 55.1% | |||||
16β19 Jul 2015 | Newspoll | 39% | 36% | 33% | 60% | 27% | 59% | |
7 Jul 2015 | Essential | 37% | 30% | 37% | 53% | 27% | 52% | |
6 Jul 2015 | Newspoll | 39% | 39% | 33% | 60% | 28% | 56% | |
11β13 Jun 2015 | Newspoll | 41% | 38% | 34% | 56% | 28% | 54% | |
11β13 Jun 2015 | Ipsos | 41% | 42% | |||||
2 Jun 2015 | Essential | 38% | 33% | 39% | 50% | 32% | 45% | |
2 Jun 2015 | Newspoll | 41% | 37% | 38% | 53% | 32% | 50% | |
17 May 2015 | Ipsos | 44% | 39% | 42% | 50% | 41% | 45% | |
17 May 2015 | Newspoll | 41% | 40% | 39% | 52% | 35% | 46% | |
12 Apr 2015 | Essential | 35% | 32% | 36% | 54% | 32% | 41% | |
5 Apr 2015 | Newspoll | 38% | 38% | 37% | 56% | 34% | 50% | |
27 Apr 2015 | Morgan | 44% | 39% | 37% | 53% | 34% | 48% | |
14 Apr 2015 | Essential | 33% | 35% | 33% | 58% | 33% | 42% | |
10β12 Apr 2015 | Newspoll | 40% | 41% | 33% | 59% | 33% | 51% | |
9β11 Apr 2015 | Ipsos | 38% | 46% | 34% | 60% | 42% | 44% | |
20β22 Mar 2015 | Newspoll | 36% | 41% | 29% | 61% | 36% | 47% | |
7β8 Mar 2015 | Newspoll | 33% | 44% | 28% | 63% | 39% | 42% | |
26β28 Feb 2015 | Ipsos | 39% | 44% | 32% | 62% | 43% | 43% | |
20β22 Feb 2015 | Newspoll | 35% | 43% | 25% | 68% | 35% | 49% | |
6β8 Feb 2015 | Newspoll | 30% | 48% | 24% | 68% | 42% | 40% | |
1 Feb 2015 | Galaxy | 27% | 44% | |||||
28β30 Jan 2015 | Galaxy | 27% | 44% | |||||
14 Jan 2015 | Morgan | 41% | 43% | 37% | 52% | 37% | 40% | |
13 Jan 2015 | Essential | 35% | 37% | 37% | 53% | 39% | 33% | |
28β30 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 37% | 44% | 33% | 58% | 37% | 43% | |
4β6 Dec 2014 | Ipsos | 39% | 47% | |||||
28β30 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 36% | 43% | 33% | 57% | 39% | 43% | |
18 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 37% | 43% | 36% | 55% | 39% | 41% | |
11 Nov 2014 | Essential | 36% | 34% | 39% | 50% | 37% | 38% | |
4 Nov 2014 | Newspoll | 39% | 38% | 37% | 52% | 37% | 45% | |
30 Octβ1 Nov 2014 | Ipsos | 41% | 41% | 42% | 49% | 43% | 40% | |
21 Oct 2014 | Newspoll | 39% | 38% | 38% | 53% | 35% | 46% | |
14 Oct 2014 | Essential | 38% | 32% | 40% | 48% | 35% | 36% | |
23 Sep 2014 | Newspoll | 41% | 37% | 41% | 52% | 38% | 43% | |
5β7 Sep 2014 | Newspoll | 37% | 37% | 35% | 54% | 36% | 43% | |
22β24 Aug 2014 | Newspoll | 39% | 40% | 36% | 55% | 40% | 39% | |
8β10 Aug 2014 | Newspoll | 41% | 37% | 36% | 54% | 36% | 44% | |
25β27 Jul 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 38% | 36% | 53% | 38% | 41% | |
11β13 Jul 2014 | Newspoll | 36% | 41% | 31% | 60% | 34% | 43% | |
27β29 Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 34% | 44% | 31% | 62% | 34% | 41% | |
13β15 Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 37% | 40% | 30% | 61% | 34% | 45% | |
30 May β 1 Jun 2014 | Newspoll | 35% | 45% | 33% | 59% | 38% | 43% | |
16β18 May 2014 | Newspoll | 34% | 44% | 30% | 60% | 42% | 39% | |
15β17 May 2014 | Nielsen | 40% | 51% | 34% | 62% | 47% | 39% | |
2β4 May 2014 | Newspoll | 40% | 38% | 35% | 56% | 35% | 41% | |
13 Apr 2014 | Nielsen | 45% | 44% | 43% | 50% | 43% | 41% | |
8 Apr 2014 | Essential | 42% | 32% | 41% | 47% | 34% | 38% | |
4β6 Apr 2014 | Newspoll | 41% | 33% | 40% | 47% | 31% | 42% | |
21β23 Mar 2014 | Newspoll | 43% | 36% | 40% | 50% | 36% | 43% | |
13β15 Mar 2014 | Nielsen | 48% | 43% | 45% | 49% | 42% | 42% | |
7β9 Mar 2014 | Newspoll | 42% | 36% | 38% | 50% | 33% | 43% | |
21β23 Feb 2014 | Newspoll | 38% | 37% | 36% | 52% | 35% | 39% | |
15 Feb 2014 | Nielsen | 49% | 39% | 45% | 47% | 40% | 40% | |
7β9 Feb 2014 | Newspoll | 41% | 33% | 40% | 45% | 35% | 35% | |
6β8 Dec 2013 | Newspoll | 41% | 34% | 40% | 45% | 44% | 27% | |
22β24 Nov 2013 | Newspoll | 44% | 33% | 42% | 42% | 39% | 27% | |
21β23 Nov 2013 | Nielsen | 49% | 41% | 47% | 46% | 51% | 30% | |
8β10 Nov 2013 | Newspoll | 46% | 30% | 45% | 38% | 37% | 24% | |
25β27 Oct 2013 | Newspoll | 47% | 28% | 47% | 34% | 32% | 24% | |
2013 election | β | β | β | β | β | β | ||
3β5 Sep 2013 | Newspoll | 45% | 44% | 50% | ||||
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader. |
Individual seat pollingβ»
Referencesβ»
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{{cite web}}
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